Machine Learning and Regression-Based Multimodal Intelligent Injury Severity Modeling of Median Crossover Crashes

Median crossover crashes are among the most severe roadway safety events due to their high-energy nature and strong association with fatal and incapacitating injuries, posing a substantial public health burden. This study develops a multimodal intelligent analytics framework to evaluate the cable median barrier performance in Tennessee by integrating structured crash data, roadway and traffic characteristics, post-impact vehicle responses, and unstructured police narratives. Across 6094 crashes on 576 cable barrier segments, 1196 involved barrier impacts and 914 included complete post-impact response information. Deep learning-based text mining using a BERT transformer model was applied to narrative descriptions from fatal, serious injury, and minor injury crashes to extract contextual indicators of loss of control, impact dynamics, and injury mechanisms. Safety effectiveness evaluation using Empirical Bayes methods showed substantial reductions after installation, including a 96% decrease in fatal crashes and an 88% reduction in serious-injury crashes. Vehicle–barrier interactions—classified as containment, redirection, rollover, or penetration—were modeled using a multinomial logit framework with marginal effects to assess the influence of geometric, operational, and vehicle-related factors. Reduced barrier offset, narrow shoulders, high traffic volumes, outer-lane departures, and heavy-vehicle involvement significantly increased the likelihood of rollover and penetration events, which are strongly linked to higher injury severity. Through fusing multimodal data and combining explainable statistical models with deep learning text analysis, this study provided a scalable, trustworthy approach to characterizing injury risk, aligning transportation safety analytics with emerging intelligent healthcare and big-data methodologies aimed at preventing severe and fatal trauma.