Peak Strain Prediction and Fragility Assessment of Buried Pipelines Subjected to Normal-Slip and Reverse-Slip Faulting

Permanent ground deformation caused by fault movement threatens the safe operation of buried pipelines. Accurate fragility assessment of buried pipelines subjected to faulting is essential for pipeline design and risk management. However, buried pipelines exhibit nonlinear mechanical responses due to the coupled effects of multiple factors. Moreover, the effects of key parameters remain insufficiently quantified, limiting the accuracy and engineering applicability of existing fragility assessments. In this study, a three-dimensional finite element model incorporating large deformation and nonlinear pipe–soil interaction is developed and validated against representative experimental data. Using this model, numerical simulations are performed for 352 parameter combinations covering fault type, dip angle, burial depth, soil type, and pipe material. Nonlinear regression of the simulation results yielded predictive models for pipeline peak axial strain under normal-slip and reverse-slip faulting. A fragility framework is then established with fault displacement as the intensity measure, and fragility curves are derived for both faulting modes. The predicted peak axial strains agree with the finite element results: 78.6% (normal-slip) and 72.5% (reverse-slip) of predictions fall within ±20% error. The fragility curves enable quantitative estimation of fault-displacement thresholds. In the case study, the intact-to-damage displacement threshold is approximately 0.6 m for normal-slip faults but approximately 0.2 m for reverse-slip faults, indicating a higher failure likelihood under reverse-slip faulting. Within the investigated parameter ranges, the fault dip angle is the most significant factor affecting the pipeline failure probability for both normal-slip and reverse-slip faulting. Sandy soil and greater burial depth substantially increase the probability of moderate-to-severe damage, whereas higher steel grade increases the displacement threshold for transition from intact to failure. This study provides a rapid quantitative tool and a theoretical basis for pipeline design and risk quantification of buried pipelines in fault zones.