Explaining the Spatial Changes of Fertility in Iran’s Counties: Patterns and Determinants (2011-2016)

Background: Fertility rates in Iran have undergone significant changes in recent decades, raising concerns about population dynamics and the country’s future demographic structure. This study investigates the spatial distribution of fertility across Iranian counties and examines the impact of socioeconomic and demographic variables on fertility patterns.Methods: This study employs a secondary data analysis approach. The dataset comprised 429 counties in Iran from 2011 to 2016, derived from national census data. Descriptive statistics, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were employed to investigate the spatially varying relationships between socioeconomic and demographic factors and fertility rates.Results: T he fi ndings i ndicate t hat c entral c ounties e xhibit favorable economic and social conditions, including higher levels of female education. Fertility rates were highest in southeastern and eastern counties, which shared similar socioeconomic contexts. GWR results showed that female education had the strongest influence on fertility in Western, Northern, and Northeastern counties, while its effect was lowest in Sistan and Baluchestan.Conclusion: Although all examined variables significantly contribute to explaining fertility variation, their relative influencediffers across geographical regions. Spatial analysis methods, which emphasize the role of location and place, reveal that the effects of determinants vary locally, providing a more precise understanding of county-level fertility patterns and their spatial interconnections.