Risk assessment and analysis of coal and gas outburst based on SPA-VFS coupling model

• Construction of a refined evaluation index system with subdivided dimensions of "Human-Machine-Environment-Management". • Accurate weighting method based on game theory coupled with subjective and objective weights. • SPA-VFS coupling model enabling dynamic and precise evaluation of uncertain risks. Coal and gas outburst disasters severely restrict the safe production of coal mines, and it is urgent to carry out scientific analysis of their risks for effective prevention. The disaster-causing factors of coal and gas outburst are analyzed from four aspects: human, equipment, environment and management. Seven primary criteria including gas factors, geological conditions, coal properties, equipment and process factors, and 28 sub-criteria are selected. The subjective weights of the indicators are determined by Analytic Hierarchy Process, the objective weights are determined by entropy weight method, and the subjective and objective weights are combined by game theory method. At the same time, a risk analysis model of coal and gas outburst based on the coupling of Set Pair Analysis and Variable Fuzzy Set is established to calculate the connection degree between the evaluation index set and the risk level standard set, and determine the risk level of coal and gas outburst in the coal seam, in order to provide new ideas for the prevention of coal and gas outburst risks.