Digital Economy Development and Corporate Low-Carbon Transition: An Indicator Suite and Capability–Governance Evidence from China

Digitalization and decarbonization are unfolding in parallel, yet firm-level evidence on whether digital economy development delivers substantive low-carbon performance remains mixed. Using a 2008–2022 panel of Chinese listed firms matched to a city-level digital economy index, we estimate lagged fixed-effects models and examine capability and governance channels through firm digital transformation and ESG disclosure. The local digital economy is positively associated with the green transition level (GT beta = 0.0044, p < 0.01) and transition speed (GTS beta = 0.0039, p < 0.10), and it significantly increases digital transformation (DT beta = 0.1431, p < 0.01) and ESG disclosure (ESG beta = 0.9790, p < 0.01), consistent with partial mediation. By contrast, effects on carbon intensity are small and become insignificant once year effects are included, indicating that short-run emissions outcomes are dominated by macro energy conditions and potential rebound forces. Overall, digital development appears to accelerate strategic transition and disclosure capacity more quickly than operational emissions efficiency. Policy implications are twofold: align digital infrastructure with ESG data governance and verification, and coordinate digitalization with energy-system reforms to enable sustained emissions reductions.