Examining Crime Trajectories at Micro Geographic Locations Across Varied Urban Contexts in the U.S.

Abstract Objectives There is a lack of research for the spatial distribution of crime at micro geographic units across a variety of places. To address the research gap, this study examines crime trajectories over the most recent decade across a wide range of cities in the U.S. Methods Using cities of different sizes, developmental stages, and employment levels as the three criteria, official crime data from 12 U.S. cities between 2010 and 2018 are analyzed to examine crime trajectories at the street segment level. Group-based trajectory models are used to determine the distinct longitudinal trajectory profiles of violent crime and property crime. Results The results provide evidence that the overall crime trend varies across cities, but crime incidents, both violent and property, are clustered in a small proportion of street segments over the time period for all the 12 cities. Moreover, street segments in large cities or stagnant cities are more likely to experience higher crime trajectories over time than those in small or growing cities. Conclusions Crime is predominantly concentrated within a very small percentage of street segments across cities, regardless of the city context. However, city context plays a significant role in shaping overall crime trajectories. This underscores the importance of taking city-specific factors into account when designing crime prevention and intervention strategies.