Economic Analysis of Nuclear Power Peak Shaving Based on AEL Hydrogen Production

Under high renewable energy penetration, nuclear power units face significant challenges in peak regulation and market clearing due to constraints on minimum technical output and ramping capability. To address this issue, a long-term power system of Guangdong Province in 2035 is taken as the study case, and an energy–reserve co-clearing simulation framework based on Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) and Security-Constrained Economic Dispatch (SCED) is established to systematically evaluate the clearing performance of nuclear power and the formation mechanism of residual electricity under multiple market scenarios. On this basis, a nuclear power-coupled Alkaline Electrolysis (AEL) hydrogen production pathway is proposed as a peak-shaving utilization option, and an economic assessment model for nuclear-based hydrogen production is developed to quantify the investment performance under different hydrogen production capacities and operating modes. The results indicate that the integration of an AEL hydrogen production system can effectively alleviate the rigidity of nuclear power output. Under the “12-3-48-3” flexible peak-shaving mode, the residual electricity available for hydrogen production increases by approximately 30% compared with a typical peak-shaving strategy. Under scenarios with low electricity prices and green hydrogen prices, when the hydrogen production capacity is configured at 50–100 MW, the investment payback period is approximately six years, and the project exhibits strong economic robustness against variations in the discount rate. These findings demonstrate that nuclear-based hydrogen production is economically feasible in future power systems with high renewable penetration, providing quantitative support for nuclear flexibility enhancement and the coordinated development of low-carbon energy systems.