Efficiency hierarchy and optimization of waste incineration in China to balance disposal and energy supply

Waste-to-energy incineration addresses the dual pressures of municipal solid waste growth and energy shortages. Persistently low energy efficiency has limited its role as energy sources. We compile a national database of 975 plants including 2151 incinerators across China, showing that they supplied up to 7% of residential electricity consumption in 2023. A three-tier classification framework was established based on energy efficiency performance to distinguish disposal-oriented, energy-recovery, and green energy plants. Scenario projections under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways indicated that waste incineration could generate up to 259 TWh by 2035, meeting 13% of residential demand. Artificial intelligence-based control and waste heat recovery are the most cost-effective. Efficiency improvements could mitigate up to 60% of greenhouse gas and flue-gas pollutant emissions relative to the 2035 baseline. These findings could redefine the role of waste incineration in low-carbon energy systems and provide scalable insights for emerging economies undergoing waste and energy transitions.