Infrastructure expansion, tourism and electoral outcomes

Abstract This paper examines the electoral impact of economic growth through increased foreign tourism using data from Croatia. To identify causal effects, the paper applies an instrumental variable strategy, which uses variation in the ruggedness of the local terrain to estimate the network of least‐cost paths. The results suggest that an increase in foreign tourism reduces nationalist voting, and increases the centre‐left vote share. In addition, I find that the increase in tourism rates led to population and employment growth, demographic shifts within municipalities, and positive spillovers on manufacturing, providing several potential mechanisms behind the voting results.