A study on the climate-driven spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Lanzhou spanning the COVID-19 era

This study demonstrates that COVID-19 not only temporarily interrupted influenza transmission but also altered the long-term ecological drivers of influenza. Post-pandemic influenza epidemics are entering a new phase, now dominated by a simplified temperature-centered environmental model, suggesting that the climate-influenza relationship has changed after probably major societal intervention. Thus, in Lanzhou and similar climates, the effectiveness of early warning systems based on historical static models requires reassessment and dynamic recalibration. Future influenza surveillance and forecasting will require more flexible frameworks that integrate multi-source data-environmental factors, viral evolution, population immunity, and social behavior-to better address the evolving infectious disease ecosystems.