Numerical Simulation and Hazard Zoning of Land Subsidence in an Arid Oasis: A PS-InSAR-Constrained MODFLOW-SUB Approach

Land subsidence induced by excessive groundwater abstraction has emerged as a major geo-environmental hazard in arid oasis regions, calling for reproducible methods to quantitatively assess the abstraction-reduction–subsidence response and to support zoned management. This study integrates Sentinel-1A PS-InSAR deformation data with groundwater-level measurements to develop and calibrate a MODFLOW-SUB model that couples three-dimensional groundwater flow and one-dimensional skeletal compaction. The InSAR deformation field is used to constrain the conceptual model and key parameters. Four abstraction-reduction scenarios (20%, 40%, 60%, and 80%) are designed to characterize response curves using indicators such as maximum cumulative subsidence, annual subsidence rate, and the area exceeding specified thresholds. In addition, a multi-criteria composite index integrating driving forces, geological susceptibility, and exposure is applied for hazard zoning and scenario comparison. The results show that PS-InSAR constraints improve the spatial agreement of the simulations. The time-series RMSE between simulated and InSAR-derived deformation is approximately 20 mm, and the end-of-period cumulative subsidence error is within 10 mm. From 2019 to 2020, the maximum cumulative subsidence reached 166 mm, and the peak subsidence rate reached 101 mm/a. A clear lag between groundwater-level fluctuations and subsidence is observed, with the maximum correlation occurring at ~35 days for ACJ-1 and ~59–83 days for ACJ-2. This spatial variability is associated with the thickness and permeability of clay layers. Forecasts for 2021–2028 indicate that, under business-as-usual abstraction, maximum subsidence may reach 695 mm. Across scenarios, subsidence mitigation exhibits diminishing marginal returns with increasing abstraction reduction. Under the adopted model settings, a 20% reduction in abstraction yields substantial decreases in maximum subsidence and high-hazard area, representing a practical trade-off between mitigation benefits and water-use costs. Overall, the integrated workflow of monitoring, inversion, coupled modeling, scenario analysis, and zoning, together with the resulting zoned management recommendations, provides decision support for land-subsidence mitigation and water-allocation planning in arid oasis regions.