Assessing the Probability of Extreme Event Risks During Aircraft Operation in the Context of Urban Air Mobility Development

Rapid urban air mobility (UAM) developments and new classes of vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft have changed the safety paradigm in urban airspace. eVTOL aircraft operations in dense urban environments are characterized by increased variability of external factors, highly dynamic flight scenarios, and an increased likelihood of rare but potentially critical events. Traditional safety assessment approaches do not capture the specific features of eVTOL designs, power plants, autonomy algorithms, and urban air traffic characteristics; this results in low threat prediction accuracy and limited development of modern incident prevention systems. Herein, the risk profile of eVTOL aircraft is analyzed, accounting for the multifactorial nature of urban environments and the complexity of integrating such vehicles into existing UAM infrastructure. The need for quantitative methods for assessing the probability of critical situation risks is also substantiated. These methods provide a statistically accurate description of extreme events and enable the identification of hidden dependencies in complex technical and organizational systems. Approaches based on probabilistic models, extreme value analysis, and systemic processing of operational data are considered, providing increased risk assessment accuracy and a deeper understanding of mechanisms underlying hazardous events. Results demonstrate the importance of applying the extreme value theory (EVT)–Copula model, which enables the quantitative assessment of the probability of extreme situations and loss of stability of eVTOL vehicles in the context of developing UAM. This model can be employed to obtain realistic predictions of flight processes, reduce uncertainty, and create scientifically valid tools for developing effective measures to minimize the risks of extreme events—a key factor in ensuring the safety of eVTOL flights in urban airspace.