From State Capture to Wartime Profiteering: The Transformation of Corrupt Networks in Ukraine's Defense and Energy Sectors (2014-2026)

This mixed-methods dissertation investigates the structural transformation of corrupt networks in Ukraine's defense and energy sectors from the post-Maidan period (2014–2021) through the full-scale Russian invasion (2022–2026). Drawing on three complementary theoretical frameworks—Network Analysis Theory, Institutional Theory, and State Capture Theory—this research addresses critical gaps in understanding how corruption adapts to institutional reform and armed conflict. The study employs a sequential explanatory design combining quantitative social network analysis with qualitative case studies. Network analysis of 9,108 nodes and 8,486 edges derived from International Consortium of Investigative Journalists offshore leaks databases revealed a distinctive hub-and-spoke architecture with near-zero clustering coefficient (0.000), indicating deliberate structural concealment through nominee arrangements. Community detection identified 16 distinct oligarchic clusters with high modularity (0.589), while analysis of 27,642 sanctions records documented a 63-fold increase in designations following the 2022 invasion. Key findings include: (a) 68% of high-centrality nodes lack name identifiers, indicating systematic nominee use; (b) network fragmentation across 1,777 connected components suggests multiple competing capture systems rather than unified corruption; and (c) the Yanukovych network exhibits the highest sanctions targeting (24 entities), followed by Kolomoisky (8 entities) and Medvedchuk (4 entities). Qualitative analysis revealed that wartime corruption operates through distinct mechanisms—emergency procurement manipulation, urgency-based oversight circumvention, and patriotic framing that delegitimizes enforcement—representing a fundamental shift from centralized oligarchic capture to diffuse profiteering involving mid-tier actors. The dissertation contributes theoretical extensions to state capture theory, methodological innovations for network-based corruption detection, and actionable policy recommendations for the U.S. Department of State and United Nations agencies engaged in sanctions implementation, anti-corruption support, and reconstruction governance.