Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Assessing Green Hydrogen Suitability in MENA FFED Countries

For nations heavily dependent on fossil-fuel exports, hydrogen is emerging as a promising solution to reduce carbon emissions while preserving economic stability and promoting countries’ energy independence. This research study examines hydrogen potential as a renewable energy source to facilitate the transition toward a sustainable economy with a special focus on Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. The analysis delves into policy frameworks, technological advancements, and infrastructure adaptations to build a reliable green hydrogen supply chain for a scalable and bankable future. The role played by other renewable energies like solar and wind, together with the risk related to the high demand for water resources to achieve the green hydrogen transition, has also been assessed. Furthermore, key challenges have been highlighted, including the repurposing of the existing pipelines into the energy networks, public–private partnerships to secure investment, and legislation requirements to encourage the adoption of novel hydrogen applications. In order to do that, a SWOT-PESTEL analysis has been carried out to identify the main decarbonization strategies for achieving a replicable framework. Moreover, a multi-criteria decision analysis was performed, applying 11 indicators across supply-side (e.g., solar/wind potential, LCOE, and water stress), demand-pull/logistics (e.g., maritime connectivity, steel production, and LNG export capacity), and risk/regulation dimensions (e.g., governance effectiveness, regulatory quality, and fossil rent dependence). The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used for weighting, the entropy method for weighting variability (hybrid 50/50 combined weights), min–max normalization for costs, 5% Winsorization for outliers, and TOPSIS for aggregation following OECD-JRC composite indicator guidelines. Results have been validated through a multiple scenario analysis (base, supply-led, and risk-aware) and sensitivity testing via Dirichlet bootstrapping (5000 iterations) with ±20% weight perturbations. Six countries of the MENA region have been studied. The multi-criteria decision analysis outcomes rank Egypt (composite score 0.518), Algeria (0.482), and Oman (0.479) as the most suitable countries for large-scale green hydrogen and ammonia production/export, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait achieved lower supply scores in the base case due to higher perceived risks.