The Nonlinear Impact of Migrants on Regional Carbon Emissions in China: Evidence From Spatial Econometric Models

ABSTRACT Amid China's accelerating urbanization, the impact of migrants on carbon emissions has emerged as a critical yet underexplored dimension of environmental challenges. Drawing on data from 275 prefecture‐level cities between 2010 and 2017, this study employs spatial econometric models to investigate the complex relationship between migrants and carbon emissions in China. The results reveal significant positive spatial autocorrelation in both carbon emissions and migrants. Over time, the autocorrelation of emissions has intensified, whereas that of migrants has gradually weakened. High‐high clusters of both emissions and migrants are predominantly concentrated in the eastern coastal regions. Empirically, migrants exhibit an inverted U‐shaped relationship with carbon emissions, with the optimization of industrial structure exerting a significant mediating effect. The analysis also highlights substantial interregional spillover effects, where the impact of migrants extends beyond city boundaries. Furthermore, environmental regulation is identified as a key factor that helps reduce carbon emissions. Heterogeneity analysis shows that migrants with higher educational attainment tend to generate lower carbon emissions, whereas older migrants are associated with higher carbon emissions. This study provides new theoretical perspectives and policy insights for understanding the environmental footprint of migrants on carbon emissions.