The AI Superpower Hypothesis: How Control of Articial Superintelligence Could Enable Unprecedented Global Domination Mechanisms, Pathways, and Governance Responses

The emergence of artificial superintelligence (ASI)—a system exceeding human performance across all strategically relevant cognitive domains—may grant its controlling entity a Decisive Strategic Advantage (DSA): the ability to dominate all rivals combined, consolidate global power, and establish a permanent “singleton” order. This paper provides a rigorous interdisciplinary analysis of the AI Superpower Hypothesis: the proposition that the first actor to achieve and deploy ASI—whether a nation-state, a corporation, or a hybrid entity—could translate that cognitive advantage into irreversible geopolitical, military, economic, and democratic domination on a global scale. We draw on: Formal Strategic Theory (Bostrom, 2014; Hendrycks et al., 2025) Geopolitical Analysis (RAND, 2025; WEF, 2025) Expert Warnings on Power Concentration (Yoshua Bengio, 2024a; Bartlett & Bengio, 2025) Empirical Record of the 2025 International AI Race Four Compounding DSA Mechanisms Recursive Self-Improvement and Cognitive Explosion – accelerating capabilities beyond human comprehension. Military-Technological Supremacy and Cyberwar Dominance – unmatchable strategic force projection. Economic Automation and Wealth Concentration – disproportionate control of global resources. Political Persuasion and Democratic Erosion – manipulation of public opinion and governance structures. Strategic Dynamics and Deterrence Prisoner’s Dilemma Dynamics – actors are trapped in accelerating competition despite shared catastrophic risk. MAIM (Mutual Assured AI Malfunction) Framework – explores deterrence via risk of AI system failures; has significant limitations. Self-Reinforcing Power Concentration – pathways by which ASI control could become irreversible. Conclusion and Recommendations While ASI superpower risk is not the most likely near-term outcome, its tail probability and catastrophic consequences justify immediate, coordinated preventive action. We propose a governance framework combining: International Treaties – binding rules for AI development and deployment. Compute Monitoring – oversight of high-performance computational resources. Benefit-Sharing Mechanisms – equitable distribution of AI gains to reduce inequality. Distributed AI Development Architecture – decentralization to prevent monopolization of ASI capabilities. This framework aims to mitigate existential risks while maintaining global cooperation and strategic stability.