What affects the likelihood of children entering public care? The interaction of household low income, area-level deprivation and parental risk factors

• Adult risk factors partly explain the relationship between both area-level deprivation and low income and the likelihood of children entering public care. • While children from areas of high deprivation are more likely to enter public care, parental risk factors have the same effects on the odds of care in areas of high deprivation and areas of low deprivation. • Specific adult risk factors − depression, anxiety and self-harm − have a bigger impact on the odds of care among low-income families. Parental problems, low income and area-level deprivation are known predictors of children entering public care, but it is unclear how much this is due to relationships between these factors. This study explores these interrelationships and asks how area-level deprivation and household-level low income interact with parental risk factors to influence the likelihood of care entry. Administrative data from health services, education and children’s social care were linked, creating a population-level dataset of households in Wales, UK, with children aged 3 to 17 (n = 221,312). Multilevel binary logistic regression models were used to identify the effects on the odds of care entry of adult risk factors (types of substance misuse, mental ill health, learning disability and neurodivegence), with and without adjustment for area-level deprivation and household low income. Further models examined interaction effects. Models suggest the effect on care entry of both area-level deprivation and low income is partly due to higher levels of the adult risk factors in deprived areas and in households with low income. There is no evidence of risk factors having a differential effect on the likelihood of care by area deprivation. Depression, anxiety and self-harm had a greater effect on the odds of care in households that did not have a low income. These findings provide new evidence unpicking the association between families struggling financially and children entering care. Findings highlight the need for policies combating child poverty and to support families living in poverty to prevent entry of children into care.