Short-Term Demand Forecasting and Supply Assurance Evaluation for Natural Gas Pipeline Networks Based on Uncertainty Quantification and Deep Learning

Natural gas pipeline networks are subject to supply instability due to random fluctuations. Current forecasting methodologies often suffer from limited accuracy, inadequate uncertainty quantification, and poor integration with dynamic network evaluation mechanisms. To address these challenges, this study presents an integrated framework that bridges short-term demand forecasting with supply assurance assessment. A deep learning model that combines a graph convolutional network and a bidirectional long short-term memory network is developed to produce accurate 72 h demand forecasts. Forecasting uncertainty is quantified using the cumulative distribution function. Based on the probabilistic forecasts, a supply assurance evaluation model is constructed that accounts for the dynamic regulation capability of line pack. The comprehensive indicator system incorporates key metrics such as user satisfaction and the line pack demand−storage ratio. A case study was conducted with the proposed method based on a regional real-world pipeline network. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms conventional baselines, achieving a mean absolute percentage error of less than 1%. The uncertainty quantification captures the risk probability associated with demand fluctuations. The proposed evaluation method identifies vulnerable sections and assesses supply margins under various scenarios, thus providing effective decision support for operational scheduling and supply assurance.