Assessment of CO2 Emissions from the Private Housing Sector in the City of Kokshetau and Analysis of Temperature Trends in the Context of Regional Climate Change

In the context of accelerating climate change and increasing urbanisation, the private housing sector is becoming a significant source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which contribute to anthropogenic pressure on the urban atmosphere and require detailed quantitative assessment. The aim of this study is to assess CO2 emissions in the private residential sector and compare their spatial distribution with observed temperature trends in the context of regional climate change. Carbon footprint calculations were performed using data on fuel and electricity consumption, complemented by geoinformation analysis to map emission patterns. On average, a single household in Kokshetau accounts for 19.27 tons of CO2 emissions per year from electricity and coal use. A clear trend of annual warming has been identified. The obtained value of Zs = 2.14 confirms the statistical significance of the temperature increase. A stable warming rate (Qmed = 0.03 °C/year) has resulted in a total rise of 1.14 °C since 1986, indicating a long-term shift in the regional climate toward warming. The use of remote sensing data and GIS analysis enabled detailed zoning of the territory based on thermal characteristics. The proposed decarbonization scenarios demonstrate that no single measure can fully achieve the targeted indicators. Maximum efficiency (over a 50% reduction in emissions) is achieved only under a combined scenario.