Event-Driven Spatiotemporal Computing for Robust Flight Arrival Time Prediction: A Probabilistic Spiking Transformer Approach

Precise Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction in Terminal Maneuvering Areas (TMA) constitutes a prerequisite for efficient arrival sequencing and airspace capacity management. While data-driven approaches outperform kinematic models, conventional Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) exhibit limitations in modeling complex multi-aircraft spatial interactions and lack the capability to quantify predictive uncertainty. Conversely, Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) enable energy-efficient event-driven computation, yet their applicability to continuous trajectory regression is hindered by “input starvation,” where normalized state vectors fail to induce sufficient neural firing rates. This study proposes a Probabilistic Spiking Transformer (PST) architecture to integrate neuromorphic sparsity with global attention mechanisms. An Adaptive Spiking Temporal Encoding mechanism incorporating learnable linear projections is introduced to resolve the regression-spiking incompatibility, facilitating the autonomous mapping of continuous trajectory dynamics into sparse spike trains without heuristic scaling. Concurrently, a Distance-Biased Multi-Aircraft Cross-Attention (MACA) module models air traffic conflicts by weighting spatial interactions according to physical proximity, thereby embedding separation constraints into the feature extraction process. Evaluation on large-scale real-world ADS-B datasets demonstrates that the PST yields a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 49.27 s, representing a 60% error reduction relative to standard LSTM baselines. Furthermore, the model generates well-calibrated probabilistic distributions (Prediction Interval Coverage Probability > 94%), offering quantifiable uncertainty metrics for risk-based decision support while ensuring real-time inference suitable for operational deployment.