Parental gender preferences and fertility ideals in China

In the context of China's relaxed fertility policies and persistently low fertility rate, this study examines how parental gender preferences - son preference, daughter preference, balanced preference, and no preference - differentially associate with the ideals to have a second child versus a third child. Using nationally representative mixed cross-sectional data from 2017 to 2021 (N = 15,668), we conduct the first systematic comparison across these two parities. The research revealed that (1) notable child heterogeneity exists in gender preferences: a balanced preference is significantly positively associated with the inclination to have a second child but negatively associated with the desire for a third child, whereas gender-specific preference shows the opposite pattern; (2) the gender composition of existing children plays a crucial moderating role, with son preference markedly increasing the willingness to have a third child in families with two daughters compared with other configurations; and (3) traditional preference habituation (son preference) is more pronounced among rural households, male respondents, and youths from low socioeconomic status (SES). This study addresses key gaps in the literature, which has largely focused on a single parity or exclusively on female respondents, by examining both second- and third-child fertility ideals among both men and women. This reveals the complexity of the dynamics of gender preferences in the fertility decisions of Chinese families.