Mapping Spatial Synergies and Trade-Offs: A Geographically Weighted Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Carbon Sequestration in Southern Italy

The transition towards climate neutrality requires the development of spatially explicit planning approaches that account for territorial differences and land-use dynamics. Within this conceptual framework, this study has the objective of identifying and discussing spatially explicit planning approaches that can support the transition to climate neutrality in different regional spatial contexts. With reference to this research question, a methodological framework is introduced and applied that is designed to support climate neutrality through spatial planning strategies. Carbon sequestration (CS) serves as a key metric to evaluate both the current state and the temporal evolution of this process, examined in connection with the provision of specific ecosystem services (ESs) within the relevant spatial setting. The work is structured as follows. An approach is developed to define the provision of ESs. Drawing on previous research and detailed assessments of environmental, landscape, and socio-cultural features, the study considers the following ESs: maintaining or improving habitat quality to sustain the life cycles of wild species valuable to humans; regulating climate by mitigating land surface temperature; agricultural and forestry production; and nature-based recreational opportunities. Moreover, spatial relationships between CS capacity and ES provision are examined through geographically weighted regressions, allowing comparisons across Basilicata, Campania, and Sardinia, three Regions in southern Italy forming the Italian Mezzogiorno. The multifunctional characteristics of ES supply contributes to optimizing CS capacity and advancing climate neutrality goals. In particular, in all three regional contexts, high values of CS capacity elasticity are recognized in relation to habitat quality and ground temperature mitigation, and very low elasticity conditions as regards the supply of recreational ESs and agricultural and forestry production.