Mobile banking, agent networks, and microfinance: A quantitative analysis of impacts on household welfare in Nigeria

Nigeria's financial landscape is undergoing a profound transformation driven by the convergence of mobile banking technologies, agent banking networks, and microfinance institutions—yet the aggregate welfare effects of these instruments on Nigerian households remain insufficiently quantified in the extant literature. This study employs a time series regression framework spanning 2005–2023 to assess the individual and joint impacts of mobile banking penetration, agent network density, and microfinance outreach on household welfare proxied by per capita consumption expenditure and the multidimensional poverty index. Controlling for Household Characteristics (HC), Technology Access (TA), Economic Factors (EF), Location Factors (LF), and Microfinance-Specific Factors (MSF), the analysis draws on secondary data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Nigeria, Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access (EFInA), and the World Bank FinStats database. Empirical findings reveal that mobile banking penetration and agent network density exert statistically significant positive effects on household welfare (β = 0.412, p < 0.01 and β = 0.318, p < 0.01, respectively), while microfinance outreach demonstrates a conditional positive impact contingent on institutional quality and borrower literacy. Post-estimation diagnostics confirm model robustness. The study contributes a longitudinal quantitative framework, challenges the technology-determinism paradigm in financial inclusion research, and recommends policy interventions targeting last-mile connectivity, interest rate regulation, and digital literacy in rural Nigeria.