Mangrove landscape dynamics and carbon sequestration in the coastal of South Malang, East Java, Indonesia

Mangrove ecosystems, with high carbon storage capacity provide nature-based solution for climate change mitigation. However, the long-term carbon sequestration potential of rehabilitated mangroves at the landscape scale remains limited, particularly in the south coastal area of Malang Regency, where mangrove cover has gradually expanded through community efforts. We aimed to assess carbon dynamics in mangrove ecosystems over the past 30 years. We estimated carbon sequestration or emission using RaCSA (Rapid Carbon Stocks Appraisal) methods by extrapolating and integrating carbon stock data at plot level with land cover change analysis (1994-2024). The results showed that the mangrove area increased from 22.12 ha (1994) to 117.47 ha (2024). On the other hand, mangrove carbon stocks did not differ significantly across tree density categories (p > 0.05). We found that carbon sequestration in mangrove ecosystems increased from 0.09 Mg ha−1 yr−1 (2004-2014) to 1.41 Mg ha−1 yr−1 (2014-2024), reflecting successful rehabilitation efforts. These findings suggest that mangrove expansion plays an important role in regional climate mitigation and the need for continued ecosystem restoration policies.