MV-RiskNet: Multi-View Attention-Based Deep Learning Model for Regional Epidemic Risk Prediction and Mapping

Regional epidemic risk prediction requires holistic modeling of heterogeneous data sources such as demographic structure, health capacity, geographical features and human mobility. In this study, a unique and multi-modal epidemiological data set integrating demographic, health, geographic and mobility indicators of Türkiye and its neighboring countries was collected. Türkiye’s neighboring countries are Greece, Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, Iran, and Iraq. This dataset, created by combining raw data from these neighboring countries, provides a comprehensive regional representation that allows for both quantitative classification and spatial mapping of epidemiological risk. To address the class imbalance problem, Conditional GAN (CGAN), a class-conditional synthetic example generation approach that enhances high-risk category representation was used. In this study, we proposed a multi-view deep learning model named MV-RiskNet, which effectively models the multi-dimensional data structure by processing each view into independent subnetworks and integrating the representations with an attention-based fusion mechanism for regional epidemic risk prediction. Experimental studies were compared using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Autoencoder classifier, and Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) models. The proposed MV-RiskNet with CGAN model achieved better results compared to other models, with 97.22% accuracy and 97.40% F1-score. The generated risk maps reveal regional clustering patterns in a spatially consistent manner, while attention analyses show that demographic and geographic features are the dominant determinants, while mobility plays a complementary role, especially in high-risk regions.