The Untangle Challenge for accurate ensemble models

We report the discovery of a new class of local minima that has severely limited the accuracy of macromolecular models. Termed density misfit barrier traps, these minima explain much of the poor fit between macromolecular models and experimental data relative to that of smaller molecules: not just high R factors, but distorted chemical geometry. We postulated that proteins exist as an ensemble of conformations that each have good geometry, but refinement algorithms have been unable to converge to them due to a tangling phenomenon arising from these traps. To demonstrate, a synthetic ground truth data set was generated, consisting of a 2-member ensemble with excellent geometry. A series of starting models, each trapped in increasingly difficult local minima, were prepared, a unified validation score defined, and an open Challenge issued. This Challenge inspired algorithms for escaping such traps, and new programs have been released that are expected to substantially improve the accuracy of macromolecular ensemble models.