Assessment of Russia’s Green Hydrogen Demand Potential and Realization Pathways: A Scenario Analysis with Learning Curve Dynamics

This study develops an integrated analytical framework to assess Russia’s green hydrogen demand potential and cost-competitiveness pathways across the steel production and road transport sectors. Using bottom-up sectoral analysis, we estimate Russia’s theoretical hydrogen demand potential at approximately 18.2 Mt/year. Three policy scenarios model demand realization trajectories under differentiated support regimes, calibrated to European alternative fuel vehicle diffusion patterns and Russian statistical data. A learning curve framework projects green hydrogen costs as an endogenous function of cumulative production, with learning rates of 5% and 10.1% representing conservative and optimistic technology development pathways. Results indicate that under realistic policy support and 10.1% learning rates, hydrogen costs decline from USD 15/kg to USD 7.23/kg by 2050, reaching the USD 10/kg competitiveness threshold by approximately 2035. However, Russia’s costs remain 2–4 times higher than global optimal-location projections due to scale disadvantages and infrastructure constraints. Policy recommendations emphasize front-loaded support mechanisms, export market integration with EAEU partners, and electrolyzer technology localization to accelerate learning effects and achieve cost competitiveness within mid-term planning horizons.