A Thermodynamic Closure Model for Titan’s Surface Temperature: Its Long-Term Stability Anchored to Methane’s Triple Point

We develop a minimal thermodynamic model to predict Titan’s surface temperature based on radiative–convective equilibrium and the principle of maximum entropy production (MEP). The model retains only the essential atmospheric constituents: gaseous methane, which absorbs both longwave and near-infrared radiation, and stratospheric haze, which scatters and absorbs solar flux. Subject to Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of methane vapor pressure together with energy balances at the surface, tropopause, and stratopause, the model links the convective flux to the surface temperature, which exhibits a pronounced maximum due to competing radiative effects of tropospheric methane. As the surface warms, enhanced greenhouse effect would strengthen the convection, whereas the rising anti-greenhouse effect would suppress convection. The resulting convective peak corresponds to MEP, which thus selects a surface temperature slightly above methane’s triple point. To assess its long-term evolution, we consider a 20% dimmer early Sun and a hypothetical 20% enrichment of the oceanic methane. Even in combination, they only cool the surface by ~2 K, in sharp contrast to the ~20 K cooling inferred in studies that prescribe haze abundance. This study suggests a critical role of self-adjusting haze in providing the internal degree of freedom necessary for MEP closure, thereby stabilizing Titan’s temperature.