U.S. Hegemony in the Polycrisis: Fragility, Complexity, and the Limits of Governance

This article examines how the contemporary polycrisis (the entan-<br>glement of economic, geopolitical, and ecological disruptions) reshapes the<br>structural conditions under which U.S. hegemony can be sustained. Drawing<br>on complexity theory and second image reversed theory, it argues that the<br>challenge confronting the U.S. is not a simple decline in power but a trans-<br>formation of the environment in which leadership operates. The polycrisis<br>generates nonlinear interactions across global systems, producing feedback<br>effects that no single actor can control. As a result, the material and ideational<br>foundations of hegemonic stability have become increasingly fragile. At the<br>same time, the complexity of governing interdependent crises amplifies domes-<br>tic political pressures, rendering policymaking more volatile and reactive. The<br>article develops the concept of hegemonic complexity to capture how systemic<br>interdependence and internal polarization combine to undermine coherent for-<br>eign and economic policy. Two empirical cases illustrate these dynamics: the<br>prolonged 2023–24 congressional struggle over Ukraine aid, and the oscilla-<br>tion between the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 and the “Big Beautiful<br>Bill” (BBB) introduced under the subsequent administration. Both cases show<br>how U.S. policymakers attempt to reduce global complexity through targeted<br>interventions that are increasingly susceptible to partisan conflict and insti-<br>tutional fragility. The article concludes that U.S. hegemony endures but with<br>diminishing coherence, reflecting a broader shift from the construction of liber-<br>al order to the episodic management of disorder in an era of global complexity.