Assessing power sector expansion and related emissions using the low emissions analysis platform: The case of Burundi in East Africa

Burundi anticipates rapidly growing electricity demand due to several evolving factors: the Government's plans to boost national GDP and position the country among emerging economies by 2040; high population growth; increasing demand for education and health facilities; and the high potential of coltan, nickel and other minerals expected to be exploited. All these goals are hindered by a significant shortfall in meeting the country's electricity needs. Despite the construction of numerous power plants aimed at improving the low electricity access rate, the country still requires considerable efforts to ensure sustainable and continuous development. Energy planning remains relatively underdeveloped in Burundi, highlighting the need to go beyond addressing the current deficit and develop a robust national electricity planning strategy. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform was used to investigate different power sector expansion scenarios and associated emissions, targeting the country's vision 2040. Three energy policies “efficient lighting (Ef-L), universal electrification (Un-El) and low CO 2 emissions (L-Em)”, established as tactical priorities for Burundi, were analyzed. The L-Em was evaluated in terms of CO 2 Equivalent at the point of emissions using a 100-year Global Warming Potential. Results showed that the country's electricity demand is anticipated to continue increasing, from 180.4 GWh in 2015 to a projected 867.6 GWh in 2040 under a Business-As-Usual scenario. Households are expected to remain the largest consumers of electricity. The Ef-L policy could save 124.6 GWh. Under Un-El, households' electricity demand would reach 825.7 GWh by 2040, compared to 536.5 GWh under the Business-As-Usual scenario. By phasing-out all fossil-fired plants after 2030, the L-Em policy would require importation of significant amount of electricity, unless there is a higher deployment of renewable energy technologies than currently planned. High adoption of renewable energy sources, combined with the Ef-L policy, are strongly recommended in the country's national energy strategies. • Burundi has the lowest electricity access rate in East Africa. • About 88% of the country's population does not have access to electricity. • Data availability is a serious concern for the country. • LEAP is a suitable model for analyzing future electricity supply and demand. • Households are projected to remain the leading electricity consumers by 2040.