Centenary patterns of soil erosion and future trends in Godavari River Basin: Insights into climate-driven risks and vegetation dynamics

Soil erosion remains a critical environmental challenge across the Godavari River Basin, threatening soil productivity, ecological integrity, and water resource sustainability. This study employs the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model with high-resolution geospatial datasets and CMIP6 precipitation projections under the SSP585 scenario to evaluate spatiotemporal soil erosion trends from 1901 to 2050. The analysis reveals that during the baseline period (1901–2024), average annual soil loss was approximately 24.78 t/ha/year, with a maximum value capped at 369.98 t/ha/year. Future projections indicate a progressive intensification in soil erosion, with mean values rising to 26.39 t/ha/year in 2021–2030, 26.39 t/ha/year in 2031–2040, and 26.41 t/ha/year in 2041–2050. The upper quartile and maximum erosion rates also increase, highlighting worsening conditions in erosion-prone regions. Spatially, the highest erosion risks are concentrated in the Western Ghats, Eastern Ghats, and steep agricultural slopes of Telangana and eastern Maharashtra, while flatter alluvial zones exhibit relatively lower erosion. Validation was undertaken through satellite-based river course change detection using Landsat imagery, which showed strong spatial agreement with RUSLE-identified hotspots. Additionally, a 3D correlation analysis between NDVI, rainfall, and erosion confirmed that areas with low vegetation and high rainfall consistently correspond to high erosion zones. These findings underscore the compounded vulnerability of degraded landscapes under a changing climate. The study highlights the need for urgent remedial measures, including afforestation, contour farming, riparian buffer development, and participatory watershed management, particularly in erosion hotspots. The integrated modelling and validation approach presented in the study offers a robust framework for anticipating erosion risks and guiding sustainable land use planning in the Godavari Basin and other similar monsoon-driven river systems.