Is the Book Judged by Its Cover? Unveiling the Impact of Corruption on Foreign Direct Investment in the PALOP Economies

This paper analyzes the impact of corruption on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Portuguese-speaking African countries (PALOP) economies between 2006 and 2018. The focus lies on Angola, Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau, and Mozambique since, according to Transparency International, they exhibit intermediate to low levels on the Corruption Perceptions Index. Despite sharing historical and cultural ties, as former Portuguese colonies, no research has focused on the impact of corruption on FDI in the PALOP economies, to the best of our knowledge. To accomplish this, we use an Instrumental Variables Fractional Probit Regression applied to data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, which gather information for 2180 firms. The results show that, on average, corruption does not significantly affect FDI in PALOP economies. Trade, credit, and firm size emerge as key FDI determinants, while investment levels and tax rates are not relevant. Corruption has negligible effects on FDI in manufacturing but boosts FDI in services. Interestingly, while corruption has no significant effect on FDI for small and medium firms, a positive, significant impact is revealed for large firms. Finally, corruption’s overall FDI impact is the same across PALOP countries, except in Angola, where it negatively influences FDI compared to Mozambique.