Assessment of climatic parameter variation and its impact on sustainable agriculture in Dir Upper Pakistan with mitigation and adaptation strategies

Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural sustainability, particularly in vulnerable mountainous regions such as Upper Dir, Pakistan. This study, titled "Analysis of Variation in Climatic Parameters and Their Impact on Sustainable Agriculture in Dir, Pakistan: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies," aims to assess past climatic trends (2002-2023) and project future scenarios using the high-emission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) model. The core objective is to evaluate the quantitative variation in key agro-climatic factors-temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind speed, and aridity and their cumulative impact on crop productivity, soil moisture, and water availability. Meteorological data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend analysis, return period analysis, and regression forecasting to determine both historical patterns and future trajectories. The results show a 2 °C rise in annual mean temperature from 1980 to 2023, accompanied by a 2% decline in rainfall and a 6% reduction in soil moisture, contributing to increasing aridity and hydrological stress. Wind speed exhibited minor seasonal fluctuations, while humidity increased, particularly during monsoon periods. Future climate projections under the high-emission RCP 8.5 scenario indicate an alarming and continuous rise in temperature throughout the twenty-first century. During the period from 2011 to 2040, the region is expected to experience moderate warming, with temperatures increasing by approximately 1.5 °C to 3.5 °C, and a median rise of around 2.5 °C. In the subsequent period of 2041 to 2070, this warming trend is projected to accelerate significantly, with temperature increases ranging from 4 to 7 °C, and a median rise of 5.5 °C. By the end of the century, from 2071 to 2100, the region could face extreme warming, with temperatures rising between 5 and 12 °C, and a projected median increase of 8.5 °C. These drastic increases are expected to intensify evapotranspiration, reduce soil moisture, disrupt crop cycles, and severely impact agricultural productivity and water availability in Upper Dir, Pakistan. To mitigate these effects, Author introduced climate-resilient species such as Tamarillo (tomato), Olive, Avocado, and Dragon Fruit, and distributed over 30,000 Tamarillo plants and other fruits plants across the region. Additionally, adaptive strategies including tunnel farming, agroforestry, construction of small dams, and efficient irrigation systems were promoted to enhance resilience. The findings emphasize the urgent need for policy-driven climate-smart agriculture, afforestation, and integrated water management strategies to sustain agricultural productivity and rural economies in the face of escalating climate risks.