Dam Deformation Prediction Based on MHA-BiGRU Framework Enhanced by CEEMD–iForest Outlier Detection

Notably, one of the key points to address low accuracy and delayed responsiveness of dam deformation prediction models lies in the timely detection of the outliers caused by environmental disturbances, sensor failures, or operational anomalies of dam monitoring sequences. Therefore, our work offers an unambiguous method for overcoming this challenge. In this paper, a robust prediction framework that integrates Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) and Isolation Forest (iForest) for effective outlier detection, followed by a Multi-Head Attention Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (MHA-BiGRU) model for dam deformation prediction, is presented. The original deformation time series is first decomposed using CEEMD into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). This decomposition separates the series into trend-related components and noise components. Subsequently, the iForest algorithm is applied in outlier detection for noise components. Then, the BiGRU model is enhanced with an MHA mechanism to give more weight to the features that affect the sequences of monitoring dam deformation. By enabling the proposed model to focus on the key factors affecting dam deformation, the accuracy of the prediction results has been enhanced. Finally, a case study introducing monitoring data from a practical project in China demonstrates the performance of the proposed method. The proposed MHA-BiGRU model demonstrates superior performance across all tested scenarios. Notably, the coefficient of determination is consistently maintained above 0.98, peaking at 0.9880. In terms of error control, the model exhibits a maximum mean absolute error of 0.1789, thereby substantiating its exceptional prediction accuracy and robustness. In comparison with classical time series forecasting models, including LSTM, GRU and BiGRU, the proposed approach demonstrates enhanced robustness and delivers greater prediction accuracy. The findings provide a promising reference framework for dam structural characteristics prediction in similar projects.