Assessing climate change impacts on aircraft takeoff performance: potential consequences of increasing high-temperature extremes at Euro-Mediterranean airports

Warmer ambient conditions results in lower lift and engine thrust, reducing the aircraft weight-lifting capacity at takeoff. The potential impacts on aircraft Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW) induced by the warming of surface air temperatures in future climate are assessed in this study at the airports in the Euro-Mediterranean region—a climate change hotspot. Major, regional and small airports are considered. The induced changes in MTOW are estimated for wide-body, narrow-body and small regional aircraft, widely used in global commercial aviation. First, the evolution of high-temperature extremes at the airports is assessed using climate observations for the baseline period 1961–1990, and future climate projections under the high-emissions scenario RCP8.5 for the periods 2021–2050 (near-term future) and 2041–2070 (medium-term future). Simulations from both Regional and Global Climate Models (RCMs and GCMs) belonging to the Euro-CORDEX and CMIP5 frameworks, respectively, are considered in a Multi-Model Ensemble approach. Second, the MTOW is obtained by combining the climate data with aircraft technical data and applying an empirical law from the aeronautical sector, which relates the MTOW to the ambient temperature. Results indicate that most Euro-Mediterranean airports could experience a decrease in MTOW, as early as the next three decades, at least for one aircraft type. For wide-body and narrow-body aircraft, these reductions are of the order of tonnes, according to the MME means of the RCMs and the GCMs: up to 7 tonnes in the near term and up to 11 tonnes in the medium term. Regional aircraft would experience MTOW reductions of hundreds of kgs. This could have a socio-economic impact, either from possible weight restrictions, flight delays or cancellations. The results of this study could guide the design of adaptation strategies at the European level, aimed at building a climate change-resilient aviation network and ensuring that European aviation will be prepared for future extreme heat events.