Mitigating Methane in Jordan: National Inventory, Emission Projections, and Policy Pathways

Abstract Jordan currently lacks a comprehensive national methane inventory with uncertainty analysis that integrates multi-sectoral sources, future projections, and mitigation pathways. This study develops Jordan’s national methane inventory and assesses emission trajectories and mitigation potential through 2050. Methane emissions from the energy, transport, agriculture, solid waste and wastewater sectors were quantified using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform–Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC), based on national activity data and IPCC emission factors. Stakeholder-validated intervention scenarios were evaluated against a business-as-usual trajectory. Baseline methane emissions in 2022 were estimated at 217.1 Gg CH₄ (109.2–358.7), dominated by the waste sectors (71%)—driven by municipal waste (66.5%) and domestic wastewater (4%)—followed by agriculture (22%), energy (7%), and transport (0.5%). Using GWP₁₀₀ = 28, 2022 emissions equal 6,082.9 Gg CO₂-eq (3,058.1–10,043.7) and are projected to increase to ~ 11,100 Gg CO₂-eq (5,500–18,300) by 2050 under business-as-usual scenario, corresponding to a rise from ~ 217 to ~ 397 Gg CH₄ yr⁻ 1 . Implementing the full mitigation package reduces emissions by up to 44.6% by 2030 and 59.8% by 2050 (to ~ 159 Gg CH₄ yr⁻ 1 ), with solid-waste interventions providing the largest and most robust reductions.