Technology is not enough: rethinking policy for informal groundwater markets in a changing climate

As a critical component of global food systems, groundwater resources are under immense pressure from climate change, forcing a re-evaluation of local water management. In response, informal groundwater markets have emerged as a widespread, grassroots adaptive strategy, yet they now stand at a critical crossroads. The rapid, dual disruptions of the solar energy transition and digital technology innovations present both immense opportunities and significant risks. In this Comment, we argue that a policy vacuum allowing these technologies to proliferate without guidance is a significant threat, likely to accelerate aquifer depletion and deepen social inequities. We synthesize evidence from South Asia, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa on how solar pumps alter extraction incentives and how digital platforms could either empower communities or entrench local monopolies. We conclude with a call to action for a proactive policy shift toward hybrid governance models that steer these powerful technological transitions toward equitable and sustainable outcomes for long-term water security.