Earthquake Loss Simulation Using the “Extremum” System: An Example of Morocco’s Territory

The study describes the use of the Extremum system for simulating near-real-time effects related to the devastating earthquake that struck Morocco on September 8, 2023, as well as the consequences of several scenario events for potentially hazardous source zones in the High Atlas (HA) region. The study’s relevance stems from the need for accurate estimates of potential losses resulting from recent earthquakes to support response decision-making and potential scenario events in the most hazardous zones, as well as to create and conduct early action plans to reduce seismic risk. The calibration of the seismic intensity attenuation models for the Moroccan area using the Extremum system is the aim of this work, too, to investigate the applicability of seismic intensity attenuation equations previously established, for near-real-time loss assessment for strong events and scenario events that could occur in the study area. It is worth pointing out that our work is the first to analyze these equations. We also look into the impact of regional vulnerability functions on typical building stock and earthquake loss simulation outcomes. The study presents the results of a potential source zone identification based on an established catalog. Considering the weighted value, three distinct procedures are employed to calculate the maximum possible magnitudes for these zones. In this context, a comparison of the projected effects for the cities of Targua and Adassil, located in the severely devastated province of Chichaoua, demonstrates a satisfactory match between the observed and expected damage to the infrastructure.