Plastic Germination, Temporal Niche Partitioning and Emergent Assortative Mating in Annual Plants

Temporal fluctuations in the environment can promote coexistence via the storage effect, where competing variants are buffered during unfavourable years. In annual plants, this can arise from seed dormancy: seeds remain in the seed bank across years and germinate under suitable conditions. Here, we investigate how plasticity in germination timing (where seeds use environmental cues to adjust when they germinate) affects genetic diversification and ecological speciation. Using eco-evolutionary models, we show that adaptive plasticity readily evolves via genetic associations between germination and fecundity traits, allowing seeds to germinate preferentially in years favourable for reproduction. This enhances temporal niche partitioning and promotes divergence into specialised morphs. Because these morphs germinate in different years, plasticity generates temporal assortative mating and maintains trait associations even without genetic linkage. Our results show that adaptive plasticity and genetic diversification can interact synergistically: predictive germination not only buffers fluctuations but also drives the evolution of biodiversity.