Morbidity Related to Volcanic Eruption Level Two of Popocatepetl in Communities Near the Crater in Puebla, Mexico, During May 2023

Abstract Background: Popocatepetl, Mexico’s second-most active volcano, intensified to level two in May 2023. This study aimed to analyze morbidity related to this eruption in nearby Puebla municipalities. Methods: An interdisciplinary, ecological, and correlational study was conducted in communities 15 km from the volcano. The Study Group included conditions linked to increased ash exposure, while the Study Control (+) comprised other causes of morbidity. The independent variable was the level-two eruption, characterized by daily PM 10 and PM 2.5 exposure in May 2023. The Kriging method was employed to estimate ash dispersion due to the limited number of monitoring stations. Statistical analysis included the Shapiro–Wilk test, frequencies, and Spearman correlation coefficient. Results: Fourteen percent of patients had conditions related to increased ash exposure, mainly noninfectious respiratory issues. The other 86% sought consultation for different situations, forming a positive control profile. Correlations between ash exposure and conditions were not statistically significant. Conclusion: Findings suggest potential biological adaptation among residents near Popocatepetl but no adaptation to its magmatic phenomena 1 . Continued improvement of population care strategies against volcanic risks is necessary. The study provides valuable evidence and methodologies for atmospheric monitoring in areas without formal networks, enhancing care strategies against volcanic risks.