Leadership and institutional quality in Nigeria’s energy sector: governance pathways to sustainable development

Purpose This study aims to investigate how leadership quality and institutional governance shape energy sector performance, focusing on access, reliability and sustainable development outcomes. Design/methodology/approach Using a panel data set covering 2010–2023 and using a two-step system generalized method of moments (System-GMM) estimator, which allows the study to distinguish between short-run and long-run dynamic effects of governance and leadership variables on electricity outcomes. Findings Results show that leadership effectiveness and institutional governance significantly enhance electricity access and system reliability. Moreover, governance mechanisms, transparency, accountability and regulatory quality, mediate and moderate these relationships. The findings highlight that the disconnect between installed and delivered capacity stems from technical deficits than from systemic governance failures. Robustness checks confirm the consistency of results across alternative model specifications. Practical implications This study offers empirical evidence that strengthening leadership and institutional governance is indispensable for achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7, 13 and 16. Originality/value Despite Nigeria’s substantial energy resource base, electricity access remains erratic and inequitably distributed, particularly between urban and rural areas. While several policy reforms have sought to liberalize and improve the sector, most notably the Electricity Power Sector Reform Act (2005) and the National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (2015), outcomes remain suboptimal.