Digital Village Construction and High-Quality Development of Grain Production Under the Background of Population Shrinkage: Evidence from China’s Major Grain-Producing Areas

Digital village (DV) construction is the core driving force for high-quality development of the rural economy, and is a key strategy for achieving coordinated progress in urban development and rural revitalization. This study empirically analyzes the direct effect and enhancement mechanisms of DV construction on the high-quality development of grain production (HDGP) by panel data from 170 cities in China’s major grain-producing areas spanning 2013–2022; this study uses the CRITIC-EWM combined evaluation, two-way fixed effects, mediating effect and moderating effect model. The results show that: (1) HDGP appears more sluggish compared to the orderly growth of DV construction, but the level of DV construction and the level of HDGP are mismatched in spatial distribution. (2) DV construction has a significant promoting effect on HDGP, and the digitalization of economy and digitalization of life play more efficiently motivating role in HDGP. (3) This promoting effect is stronger in the population-shrinking regions than in the non-population-shrinking regions. (4) Approximately 8% of the promoting impact of DV construction on the HDGP is achieved indirectly through the scale of new agricultural business entities. (5) Government innovation planning exerts a significant enhancing moderating effect on the influence of DV construction on HDGP.