How AI-assisted scenario thinking develops “agile minds” for a successful digital strategy?

Purpose This paper investigates how leaders of hybrid organizations can develop flexible mental models − or “agile minds” − to navigate digital strategy under uncertainty. The study introduces AI-assisted scenario thinking as a cognitive scaffold that reduces cognitive load and enhances leaders’ adaptive capacity. Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts a conceptual, propositional theory development approach. Drawing on Cognitive Load Theory and the Human–AI Collaboration (HAIC) framework, it develops the “5F framework” (Foundation, Forces, Focus, Futures, Formations) and the corresponding five novel propositions, including an extended proposition. Each stage explains human–AI collaboration process in scenario thinking that allocates tasks between humans and AI according task complexity and levels of uncertainty (complementarity, substitution, symbiosis). Findings The paper integrates HAIC into scenario thinking process and theorizes five propositions showing how AI-assisted scenario thinking reduces extraneous and intrinsic cognitive loads while enhancing germane load for leaders and decision-makers. By shifting from rigid, means-end problem solving toward forward-working thinking, leaders can better revise schemas, recognize weak signals, and craft adaptive strategies under uncertainties in the digital age. Practical implications The 5F framework provides managers with a structured method to leverage generative AI as a cognitive partner in scenario thinking. It clarifies when AI should complement, substitute, or co-evolve with human reasoning, offering a practical pathway to reduce mental overload while enhancing strategic agility. Originality/value This study extends scenario thinking literature by offering a cognitive-process explanation of how AI-assisted foresight support strategic adaptability under certainty. Rather than proposing a new foresight method, this paper contributes a theoretically grounded framework that integrates Cognitive Load Theory and Human–AI Collaboration. This paper explains why and when scenario thinking can facilitate adaptive mental model development in digitally intensive organizational context.