Global warming drives an increase in pre-monsoon tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean
Early-season tropical cyclones (TCs), particularly in the pre-monsoon period (April-June) of the North Indian Ocean (NIO) basin, often cause exceptionally severe damage to populated landmasses despite being less frequent. A critical uncertainty is how these TCs respond to anthropogenic climate change. Here, we find a significant increasing trend in pre-monsoon TC activity in the NIO basin, with accumulated cyclone energy exhibiting a striking rise of 3.01 × 10<sup>4</sup> knots<sup>2</sup> per decade (P < 0.05) during 1981-2023, while the corresponding trend during the post-monsoon season (October-December) is weaker and insignificant. Climate models identify increased greenhouse gas as the primary driver, creating more favorable thermodynamic conditions for TC formation and maintenance in the NIO basin during the pre-monsoon season. These enhanced thermodynamic conditions are projected to intensify further, suggesting the increasing trend in pre-monsoon TC activity may continue to accelerate in the future.
Authors
- Xiping Yu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2867-9660)
- Kaiyue Shan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8013-6850)
- Y. Joseph Lin
- Lixin Wu
- Pao-Shin Chu
- Fengfei Song
Institutions
- University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US)
- Southern University of Science and Technology (CN)
- Laoshan Laboratory
- Ocean University of China (CN)
- Tsinghua University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2026-02-19
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-69818-x
- Primary Topic
- Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- China Association for Science and Technology
- National Natural Science Foundation of China