Climate physical risk in MENA: patterns, persistence, and policy implications for sustainable development

Abstract This study offers the first systematic analysis of convergence and divergence in climate physical risk across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, utilizing the innovative Climate Physical Risk Index (CPRI) and state-of-the-art panel stationarity methods. Analyzing CPRI data for 17 MENA countries from 1993 to 2023, we apply four stationarity tests including the novel Fourier KPSS with structural breaks (FKPSS-SB) model to capture both smooth and abrupt changes in climate risk trajectories. Our results reveal persistent heterogeneity, with only Morocco and Oman exhibiting convergence under the most flexible model specification, while the remainder of the region remains divergent. By linking identified break dates to regional climate events and policy shifts, we provide new empirical insights into the drivers of climate risk and resilience in MENA. The findings underscore the need for regional adaptation coordination, but feasibility is constrained by political, economic, and institutional differences across MENA, so cooperation is most realistic in practical, widely beneficial areas (e.g., shared climate services, early-warning systems, and data platforms).