Climate Trends and Future Scenarios in Afghanistan: Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Renewable Energy Potential, and Sustainable Development

Although Afghanistan’s contribution to global and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is minimal, it remains among the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation have significantly disrupted the country’s natural resources, including water supplies, agriculture, forests, rangelands, and ecosystems, threatening its agrarian economy and socio-economic stability. Simultaneously, Afghanistan has substantial untapped renewable energy potential, especially in hydropower, solar, wind, and biomass. This study analyzes historical (1970–2014) and projected (2015–2099) climate trends across Afghanistan by examining mean annual temperature and precipitation using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s Slope estimator. Results indicate a significant warming trend, with a 1.58 °C rise in temperature and a 36 mm decrease in annual precipitation over the past five decades. Future projections based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) suggest continued temperature increases, while precipitation trends vary geographically and over time, showing increases, decreases, or little change. The study also evaluates Afghanistan’s GHG emissions, which are negligible on regional and global scales. Despite its abundant renewable energy resources, the country still depends heavily on electricity imports from neighboring nations, leaving much of its domestic potential untapped. Harnessing these renewable resources can provide a practical path toward energy independence, zero-emission energy generation, and sustainable long-term development. This research emphasizes the urgent need for Afghanistan to strategically develop its renewable energy sector to boost climate resilience, enhance energy security, and promote sustainable economic growth.