Determinants of Saudi Arabia’s date exports: an ARDL analysis of long and short-run dynamics (1990–2023)

Abstract Dates are a major export crop for Saudi Arabia, contributing to foreign exchange earnings and benefiting from the Kingdom’s comparative advantage in production. This study investigates the determinants of Saudi date exports from 1990 to 2023 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the associated Error Correction Model (ECM). Domestic date production, date cultivated area, date export price, trade openness, and world date production are included as key explanatory variables. Unit root tests confirm that all variables are integrated in order one, supporting the suitability of the ARDL approach for analyzing both short- and long-run dynamics. The results indicate that domestic date production significantly increases exports in the long run, while cultivated area has a negative but statistically insignificant effect, suggesting that expanding farmland without improving yield per hectare does not immediately boost exports. Date export price and trade openness are also significant in the long run, highlighting the influence of international market conditions and trade policies. In the short run, domestic date production negatively affects exports, whereas world date production has a positive and significant effect, indicating that temporary changes in global supply can influence short-term export levels. The error correction factor (ECT) has a value of –0.7151, which is statistically significant. The negative sign confirms the convergence of the system from short- to long-term equilibrium. It indicates the speed at which Saudi date exports return to their long-run equilibrium after deviating in the previous period (t–1). Approximately 71% of this disequilibrium is corrected within one period, reflecting a relatively fast adjustment toward long-term equilibrium. These findings emphasize the importance of improving production, supporting trade openness, and maintaining product quality to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s position in global date markets. Strategic efforts in these areas are essential to leverage the Kingdom’s comparative advantage and sustain export growth.