Potential habitat suitability and landscape permeability analysis for the conservation of Red List plant species

Abstract Context Habitat fragmentation contributes to population isolation and threatens the survival of plant species listed on the Red List. Effective conservation measures require considering both suitable habitats and landscape permeability. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable for identifying suitable habitats. These models gain utility when combined with landscape permeability analyses for conservation planning. Objectives This study aims to (1) model the potentially suitable habitat distribution for five threatened plant species in Romania, (2) assess landscape permeability, and (3) identify priority areas for conservation based on the overlay of the habitat and permeability. Methodology We applied an integrated approach that combined SDM modelling (MaxEnt) and GIS analysis. We used the Continuum Suitability Index (CSI) to quantify landscape permeability. By mapping the spatial overlap of habitat suitability and permeability, we classified areas into four categories for ecological interventions. Results A significant proportion of the identified suitable habitats have low permeability, which limits species dispersal and persistence. Areas combining high suitability and high permeability are limited and are mostly outside protected areas (PAs). This highlights the urgent need for conservation actions. Measures such as optimal grazing management, reduced fragmentation, and maintaining traditional agro-pastoral mosaics should be prioritized in these critical zones beyond formal protected area boundaries. Conclusion Including landscape permeability in habitat analyses gives a more realistic view of the requirements of threatened species. It supports more explicit decision-making for conservation management. The study also proposes a replicable method for other fragmented regions, with direct applications in land-use policy and biodiversity conservation.