Impact of wind prediction uncertainty on wind farm wake steering control

Wake Steering control, as one of the significant methods for wind farm optimization control, has its effectiveness influenced by multiple factors. This study quantifies the impact of wind prediction uncertainty on wind farm wake steering control. Using Monte Carlo simulation, wind speed and wind direction prediction uncertainties were modeled with Gaussian and Laplacian distributions, respectively, followed by stochastic sampling. Simulations were conducted to assess their effects on the overall power enhancement. The results demonstrate that wind speed prediction uncertainty has a negligible impact, causing power losses of less than 0.05%. In contrast, wind direction prediction uncertainty exerts a significant influence, with power losses ranging between 6.5% and 10%. This effect intensifies with decreasing wind speed and increasing wake strength. Joint simulation of wind speed and direction uncertainties confirmed that wind direction uncertainty dominates the control effectiveness. This research highlights the critical role of wind direction prediction accuracy for control performance, providing a basis for enhancing control robustness and optimizing prediction.