Evaluating the determinants of tourism demand for policy implications: insights from the Moroccan case

Purpose This study aims to assess the key determinants influencing Morocco’s international tourism demand to guide the development of an effective national tourism policy aligned with the country’s 2023–2026 tourism roadmap. By analyzing tourist arrivals (TA) from 45 source countries between 2000 and 2022, the research identifies economic and non-economic factors critical to achieving the target of 17.5 million tourists. Priority areas include pricing, infrastructure, security, governance and climate risk resilience. Design/methodology/approach Using a hypothetico-deductive and quantitative approach, the study applies dynamic panel data models, including the generalized method of moments, to account for endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity. Key variables include tourists’ income, relative prices, infrastructure, destination security, government integrity, investment freedom (IF), economic crises and climate-related disasters, enabling robust estimations of tourism demand drivers. Findings Tourists’ income and relative prices influence TA. Improved infrastructure, governance, security and IF also encourage demand. Conversely, climate-related natural disasters and economic crises reduce inbound tourism to Morocco. These findings highlight the need for integrated policies to sustain growth and meet Morocco’s 2026 tourism goals. Research limitations/implications Reliance on open-access databases limits detailed insights into tourists’ risk perceptions and the influence of social media on tourism in Morocco. Practical implications Future research should integrate behavioral and perception indicators, using mixed methods to deepen understanding of sustainability and competitiveness. Policymakers can use current findings to tailor effective and resilient tourism strategies aligned with national goals. Originality/value This study highlights the importance of integrating economic and non-economic factors in advancing tourism demand research. It provides actionable insights that support Morocco’s 2026 economic roadmap.